Republicans must pick up 6 seats in the 2014 midterm elections, which are now 35 days away, to take control of the U.S. Senate and to oust, once and for all, Senator Harry Reid as Majority Leader.
The current count is 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and that includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats.
Despite the Democrats’ lead in fundraising, the latest polls show Republicans trending comfortably ahead in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. That leaves the Republicans three states short, assuming that they hold on to their existing seats in Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas.
If you average the latest polls, the GOP is also poised to take Alaska (with Dan Sullivan (R) ahead of Mark Begich (D) by 4.7%), Arkansas (with Tom Cotton (R) ahead of Mark Pryor (D) by 3.7%) and Iowa, where Joni Ernst (R) leads Bruce Braley (D) by 2.8%. The states where it is still a toss-up are Colorado, Louisiana, and North Carolina.
Here is a breakdown state-by-state:
Kansas: Greg Orman (I) vs. Pat Roberts (R)* –Orman +5.3
(Kansas is a reliably red state, but the polls show Orman ahead. When Milton Wolf challenged the incumbent Roberts in the primary, he held Robert to less than 50 percent. The question is, will the Wolf voters break for Roberts?)
Montana: Amanda Curtis (D) vs. Steve Daines (R) –Daines +19
South Dakota: Rick Weiland (D) vs. Larry Pressler (I) vs. Mike Rounds (R) – Rounds +12.6
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R) – Capito +19
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) vs. Mitch McConnell (R)* – McConnell +5.3
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) vs. David Perdue (R) – Perdue +3.4
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)* vs. Dan Sullivan (R) – Sullivan +4.7
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D)* vs. Tom Cotton (R) – Cotton +3.6
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R) – Ernst +2.8
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)* vs. Cory Gardner (R) – Gardner +1.5
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)* vs. Bill Cassidy (R) – Cassidy +4.6
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)* vs. Thom Tillis (R) – Hagan +4.2